Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco
We believe 2026 will represent a rare period of synchronised global growth, driven by easing trade tensions, a rebound in manufacturing, and the delayed impact of global monetary easing – culminating in a short-lived upswing in real economic activity worldwide.
AI remains a dominant theme but the cyclical recovery story in global manufacturing will gain traction. AI remains the productivity wildcard, fuelling optimism but also posing a systemic risk if emerging excess capacity were to erode pricing power for the AI supply chain.
Expect sticky inflation to keep central banks cautious, even as real yields decline under political pressure, particularly in the US. This dynamic could spur equity risk-taking while leaving US Treasuries vulnerable to see US 10Y yields higher by the end of 2026.
Emerging markets stand to benefit from a weaker dollar and improving sentiment, while Europe may reclaim its role as a growth engine.
In short, 2026 offers opportunity for those attuned to the rhythm of a late-cycle equity market.
Mark Montgomery, chief commercial officer, xyt
The rise of bilateral trading remains a concern to many market participants and continues to be a closely watched topic for next year.
More trading is happening off the exchange’s central order book, and some brokers are seeing trades move away from them to the large market makers.
The market is getting better at identifying this flow. Market makers are standardising how they report this activity and traders are getting a better sense of which trades are addressable to the wider market.
Traders remain concerned about price discovery and transparency if flow continues to migrate away from the order book.
But this trend is not irreversible. We’ve seen that during periods of volatility flow moves back from bilateral and other more opaque execution types to the exchange order book. During big geopolitical or macro events everyone wants price certainty.
Matt Weinberg, head of business development, IEX
Dark trading will remain a crucial part of trading strategies in 2026, but the way firms evaluate execution quality and venue allocation is changing.
Firms have historically focused on evaluating venue execution on shorter time horizons. These short-term mark outs along with other metrics like fill and hit rates rate were the mainstays of venue evaluation.
As tools and trading evolve and mature, market participants are taking a more nuanced view of which dark venues best support their strategies. Traders are using different kinds of venues to access midpoint and are evaluating them differently. They are seeking tools that let them engage liquidity on different terms depending on the strategy, urgency, and performance horizon they care about most.
For example, there may be multiple time intervals used for mark outs, as the focus expands towards longer-term time horizons and broader evaluations of market impact. As part of this push to evaluate venues more holistically, we also believe market participants will further incorporate unique features (like price improvement) different venues offer.
In 2026, the real story is not just the growth of dark trading, but the growing sophistication of how firms measure it, and how that will redefine their access to non-displayed liquidity.
David Choate, chief operating officer, CAPIS
In 2026, regulators, asset owners, and policymakers will start to take a closer look at the long-term effects of passive dominance.
Years of steady inflows into index funds and ETFs have simplified investing but also introduced side effects, like greater stock co-movement, shrinking research budgets, and fewer incentives for companies to go public.
Active management remains the foundation of healthy capital markets. It funds research, supports price discovery, and allocates capital based on merit rather than size.
As markets grow more concentrated and liquidity more fragile, the need for those functions will become harder to overlook.
We may begin to see early discussions around rebalancing the landscape, whether through modest regulatory adjustments, new incentives for active participation, or renewed investor interest in differentiated strategies.
The shift won’t happen overnight, but 2026 could mark the start of a broader recognition that both active and passive have essential roles in sustaining vibrant, efficient markets.