James Baugh, managing director, head of European market structure, TD Securities
Market consolidation versus liquidity fragmentation will be a point of discussion into next year. The Swiss Exchange Group acquisition of Aquis will be an obvious one to watch, while in contrast, there are a slew of new liquidity opportunities expected to go live in 2025. However, the jury’s out on whether further fragmentation is needed given the continued squeeze in order book liquidity and/or whether the market has the capacity to connect as internalisation continues to take priority for many.
Next year could see the re-emerging debate around shorter trading hours ratchet up, which contrasts to the 24-hour trading agenda in the US. Separately, conversations are likely to continue in support of single regulatory framework for Europe.
The selection procedure for the European equities tape starts next June, with a decision made by the end of 2025. Hopefully the UK will also announce their views on an equities tape next year. September will see Europe ban payment for order flow and introduce a new 7% single volume cap for dark trading. Otherwise, focus must be on making equities markets more transparent and less bilateral to attract international investment and prevent further primary issuance leaving these shores.
Joe Collery, head of trading, Comgest
I feel the biggest trend in 2025 will be redefinition of the roles of ELPs [electronic liquidity providers]. Market participants continue to lament the inadequacy of liquidity in continuous market trading which will lead to shift in how ELPs provide their liquidity to fill this perceived gap.
Jo Burnham, risk and margining SME, OpenGamma
Predictions are a tricky business. Three years ago, would many people have predicted that Donald Trump would be returning to the Presidency in early 2025, with long-term wars raging in both Europe and the Middle East? Investors have learnt that they need to expect the unexpected, which is why liquidity risk management practices are now so important.
I see this being a big theme for market participants next year – ensuring that they are operationally resilient. Being able to navigate margin requirements and optimise the ways that they are met is so important in a volatile geopolitical environment, which inevitably permeates through to financial markets.
Bjorn Sibbern, global head of exchanges, SIX Swiss Exchange
In 2025, the challenge for European primary markets will be creating an investment environment that fosters innovation while attracting global IPOs, not just competing for regional dominance. On the secondary markets front, liquidity fragmentation remains a pressing issue.
By the end of next year, exchanges will need to have made significant strides in venue innovation, not only to retain institutional flow but also to foster greater retail participation. Short and sharp bouts of market volatility, as we saw this year with the global equity sell-off in August, could also shape the trading landscape. This is why exchanges must evolve with smarter tools and deeper liquidity to remain the trusted platforms for price discovery.
Matt Clarke, head of distribution and liquidity management for EMEA, XTX Markets
In 2025, we expect five or more ELPs [electronic liquidity providers] to offer actionable liquidity directly into the major EMS platforms and the Reactive Markets network across EU and US equities. It is entirely possible we’ll see one or more banks extend similar offerings to select clients. Our preferred approach involves a broker in the middle, allowing buy-side firms to outsource ELP onboarding and benefit from aggregated prices in competition. This model enables liquidity providers to offer tailored liquidity and collaborate with end-clients.
The exact form of this workflow is still developing with the buy-side playing a key role in shaping it. Successful solutions will have low onboarding friction, work for both automated and click trading, and aggregate all liquidity sources in one place. This aggregation of liquidity will drive fierce price competition, leading to better trading outcomes. The potential rewards of this workflow are increased size and mid presence, resulting in measurably better execution quality. As always, results are what will drive long-term adoption.
Keep an eye out for further predictions unpacking all corners of the market published by The TRADE in the coming weeks!